Cold deck

More About Statistics

Statistics, odds, and percentages are interesting things, and seeing them in motion is fascinating.  A person may roll a pair of dice hoping for a certain outcome, and may get that outcome the very first time, or not at all for a seemingly impossible amount of time. Statistics are often misunderstood, and tend to behave in ways that don’t seem logical. It is all, however, just a matter of numbers balancing themselves out.

There is a perception that if, for example, a dice rolls a double six, that this occurrence is now less likely, or possibly more likely to occur. But this is simply not the case, and no observations about statistics should ever be made on a single occurrence, but rather that same occurrence repeating a large number of times. It is the rhythm of statistics, however, that have given rise to many systems of gambling, many of which can be highly effective if used correctly. In some cases gamblers feel they have become tuned into the statistics of a certain deck of cards, and may predict accurately which cards are about to be played. And, amazingly, there is a hint of truth to such a seemingly paranormal statement.

Hot Deck

The term hot deck refers to a deck of cards that seems to be playing very much in the gamblers favour. This may happen at any time during that deck of cards being played, and after a period of being unkind to the gambler, will suddenly turn beneficial. This is, of course, simply a matter of certain cards landing up in a particular sequence. A deck of cards is never truly hot; the correct cards have just landed up in a way that seem positive.

A phenomenon that occurs in modern casinos, however, has come about due to the automated shuffling machines being used. The perception is that these machines efficiently arrange a deck in an unrecognisable way, but the truth is that they do not. The machines tend to repeat the sequence of shuffling in a way that is potentially recognisable, not only to the incredibly observant who may work out the sequence, but also in a way that tends to create continuous hot patches that carry over from deck to deck. The hot patches will eventually be worked out of the system, but for a period gamblers will feel they have an advantage.

Cold Deck

The same can be said for decks that appear to be constantly unkind to gamblers, which is referred to as a cold deck. Cards dealt will seem to be consistently poor, ruining a player’s luck and likewise their bank account. Again, this cold deck may appear to be carried over again and again, due to anomalies in automated shuffling machines. Of course, as statistics go, no hot deck or cold deck can ever remain a certain way without a complete failure of shuffling. Hence, in when faced with what is seen to be a cold deck, the solution is simply to wait. Keep in mind that any gambler is allowed to call for the dealer to reshuffle cards, as the tradition at casinos. It is an important tradition that should never be overlooked.

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